Who's laughing now?

Most Carolina fans agree that Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves worked out better for Carolina than did Mike Commodore and Cory Stillman for Ottawa.
The Senators, though, may have gotten the last laugh on that. When the Canes lost last night, it assured the Sens of a playoff berth. That's how the back door works. Even though the Sens lost their game, they locked up a playoff berth.

They'd probably much rather be in the post-season than to have "won" the trade.

Carolina still has a chance, but it's out of their hands. The weary Panthers will have to play spoiler in DC tonight. No acceptable outcome other than a regulation win by the Kitties.

I've already resigned hoping for that outcome, but anything could happen. I'm already prepared for a long offseason. I'll concede the floor to Kevin from BFLOBLOG:

Welcome to the new and miserable world of watching some team you despise advance towards the Cup while you sit at home swearing, knowing we don’t even have a chance this year.

Canes rebound, crush Sens

On Sunday afternoon, the Hurricanes put the bad loss in Buffalo behind them by pasting the visiting Senators 5-1. To make things extra sweet, it became even more clear that Carolina got the better end of the February 11 trade.

Joe Corvo, who hated the Canadian press, and who was constantly maligned by the Sens faithful, had a spectacular night. He recorded his first career hat trick, notching goals 10,11 and 12 of the season. He now has 42 (12/30) points on the season. 15 (6/9) have come in 15 games since joining the Hurricanes.

Dany Heatley got the scoring off to an early start when the Sens cashed in on a five-on-three power play situation. Jason Spezza made a very nice cross-ice pass to Heatley, who was parked by the right post. He tucked it in for the early lead, but it would be the Sens only bright spot. Cory Stillman got the secondary assist.

Patrick Eaves, the other part of that Feb 11 trade, got his first goal in a Hurricanes uniform during the Canes first power play of the afternoon. Frantisek Kaberle's hard shot from the blue line was tipped by Eaves at the top of the goal crease. The penalty, by the way, was Mike Commodore's. Officially, the power play goal was at 7:00 of the first, and it was assisted by Kaberle and Scott Walker.

Mike Commodore's night got worse when his second penalty of the game led to Carolina's second goal of the game at 10:24. Joe Corvo fired a cannon from the high slot that the Gerber Baby had no chance on. The game-winning goal was during a four-on-three power play. Sergei Samsonov and Eric Staal got the assists.

Scott Walker scored his second goal in as many games, beating Gerber with a nasty wrist shot at 5:56 of the second. After a Sens turnover, Eric Staal fed Tim Gleason, who joined the 3-on-2 rush. Gleason, streaking down the right wing made a beautiful pass to Walker, who wristed it in from the inside hash marks of the left circle.

There was no more scoring in the second, but it was emblematic of the Sens play for the whole game. They only mustered three shots in the second frame, and they committed five penalties. The puck was in the Ottawa end for probably 70% of the period.

At 2:09 of the final stanza, Joe Corvo got his second goal of the night with a laser beam from the top of the right circle. Again on the power play, and again it was assisted by Samsonov and Staal.

To cap a magnificent afternoon, Corvo scored on a nifty backhand goal at 17:50 of the third to finish a breakaway . Tuomo Ruutu got the only assist. It was Corvo's first career hat trick, and perhaps the first one ever by a Hurricanes defenseman.


It's hard to argue with the "official" three stars of Patrick Eaves (third), Eric Staal (second) and Joe Corvo (first). While that's cute to give both former Sens a star, I think I've gotta give SerSam some love on this one. The RBH three stars:

THIRD STAR Sergei Samsonov, CAR --- 2 assists, 2 takeaways
SECOND STAR Eric Staal, CAR --- 3 assists
FIRST STAR Joe Corvo, 3 goals, 3 blocked shots

Mike Commodore had a dismal day, and has been nothing but trouble for the Sens. His two penalties today both resulted in Canes goals. He doled out five hits, but has been for Ottawa thus far exactly what he had grown to be in Carolina: a liability. In 17 games with the Sens, he has no points and is a -8.

Cory Stillman had an assist on Ottawa's only goal. In 17 games for them, he has 14 (2/12) points and is a -5.

On the other hand...

Joe Corvo has 15 points (6/9) in 15 games with Carolina and is a +6.

Patrick Eaves has 4 points (1/3) in 9 games with Carolina and is a -1.

Although Carolina took care of their end, they didn't get help from their SE enemies. Both Washington and Florida won their games. Carolina's lead in the SE remains at five points.

Carolina will be off until Wednesday, when they travel to Atlanta.

After this game, what will the Canadian press say about Corvo?

Canes to host Sens in "reunion game"

On Sunday afternoon, the Hurricanes will host the Senators. They will try to put Friday's debacle in Buffalo behind them, but Ottawa is pretty hot right now. It should be a fun game, and I'll have to miss the first period, but I'm DVRing the whole thing.

This is the first time the teams have met since Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore were traded for Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves. Also, Matin Gerber will be back.

Carolina has recalled forwards Joe Jensen and Patrick Dwyer from Albany. Jensen had a one-game call up earlier in the season, but he became violently ill during the game. This will be Dwyer's NHL debut.

Puck drop is at 3:00.

Also, don't forget to sign up for the NCAA mens basketball bracket pool.

The group is called "hockey bloggers", but it's open to anyone.

To enter, simply click on the link below, or cut and paste it into your browser.

http://hockeyblog.mayhem.sportsline.com/e

Our Group password is: icing

This pool will have special bonus points if you correctly pick a Cinderella to make a deep run.

Evaluating the trade

On February 11, the Hurricanes and Senators pulled off a major trade ahead of the deadline. Carolina sent winger Cory Stillman and defenseman Mike Commodore to the Senators in exchange for winger Patrick Eaves and defenseman Joe Corvo. At first, the trade seemed like a wash, but enough time has now passed to be able to fairly evaluate the trade.

Since the trade, Ottawa has played 14 games and has gone 4-7-3. In that span, they've scored 27 goals and given up 45 for a differential of -18.

In that same amount of time, Carolina has played 13 games, going 10-2-1. They've scored 48 and given up 36 for a differential of +12.

In 14 games played, Mike Commodore has scored 0 points and is a -7.
In 14 games played, Cory Stillman has scored 11 (2/9) points and is a -5.

In 12 games played, Joe Corvo has scored 11 (3/8) points and is a +7.
In 6 games played, Patrick Eaves has scored 3 (0/3) points and is a +1.

Commodore and Stillman are both scheduled to be UFAs and both are due big raises.

Corvo is under contract for two more seasons and Eaves is scheduled to be a RFA.

Thus far, it's a no-brainer as to who got the better end.

Canes and Sens swap players

I went out of town Monday for a very short business trip (and a night of ridiculous depravity) , and I missed a very big thing. Carolina sent winger Cory Stillman and defenseman Mike Commodore to the Senators for young winger Patrick Eaves and defenseman Joe Corvo.

There's an unseen ramification of this which I don't like, and I'll get to that later.

A friend who is a Penguins fan, not knowing that I was on the road, called to ask me what I thought of the deal. "What deal?" I feared that he was going to say that Erik Cole was part of some lame package, but this one I kind of like.

Immediately, I thought that Stillman is (a)slumping big-time (2)a UFA-to-be, and (III) getting up there in age. The Canes get a much younger guy with a ton of potential. I've seen him play a few times, and I've seen him pot goals against the Canes. I know what he can do. I'm pretty excited about this addition. For the future, I mean. For now, even a slumping Cory Stillman is better than an injured Patrick Eaves. Still, I'll take the kid.

I'm more excited about Joe Corvo. Carolina gives up a decent stay-at-home kind of defenseman who is given to taking bad penalties late in the game. In return, they get that puck-moving defenseman they've been wanting. They get a guy with a heavy shot that he's not afraid to use, but they also get a guy who makes some outrageously dangerous passes. One of my rubs against Commodore has always been that he's often too busy checking the rear-view mirror instead of going after loose pucks in the corner. He brings a level of intensity and on some level, some brawn, but absolutely no offensive upside. In that respect, Corvo, albeit four years older, brings more. Both players make lots of mistakes, but Carolina gets what they need. Corvo is signed thru 2010, whereas Commodore is a UFA-to-be and is due for a big raise. Corvo was unhappy in Ottawa, largely because of the overly scrupulous media. He'd been asking to be dealt to an American team, and he's gotten his wish.

The Senators are adding some scoring punch to (presumably) their second line, but they're losing some scoring from the back end. They're also getting a couple of guys who have won the Cup. Carolina adds some offensive production and some puck movement from the blue-line, but they give up one of their leading scorers. When the salaries for this season only are figured in, the Senators save about $500k, but they'll have to pay Commdore big bucks next season.

When it's all said and done, both teams benefit, and it's pretty hard to say who benefits more. I'm happy with what the Canes got, and moving forward, they'll probably have the better end if they re-sign Eaves.

Here's the unseen ramification. Mike Commodore wasn't just a fan favorite and a general goofball. He was Chad Sharpie LaRose's best friend. Poor Chad isn't going to have anyone to hang out with anymore. Something tells me that Joe Corvo isn't going to fill that role.

In Tuesday's debut with Carolina, Joe Corvo recorded an assist on the game-winning goal. Patrick Eaves is recovering from a shoulder injury and won't play until next week at the earliest. Cory Stillman had an assist for the Senators in his debut on Tuesday. Mike Commodore was a non-factor.

Carolina drops fourth in a row

On Thursday night, Carolina lost its fourth game in a row and the seventh in their last ten. They went to Ottawa hoping to turn the ship around and climb back into first place in the Southeast. Unfortunately, they were going up against the best team in the Eastern Conference, and they continued to play like the worst team in the entire league.

The final tally was 5-1, but really it felt like 10-0.

Like a badly overmatched college basketball team, they took a lot of low percentage shots from long distance and bad angles. Their shot total was high, but like so many times this year, very few of their shots were quality. 99.44% of the time when you shoot the puck right at the crest on the goaltender's chest, it isn't going to find its way in the net.

Without any intention to discredit Ottawa, Carolina didn't play well. They haven't played well in a few weeks. Months, even. Their forechecking is non-existent, their backchecking a joke, their penalty killing dreadful, and so on. There is absolutely zero creativity in their playmaking and shot selection. The defensemen take too many stupid penalties. The goaltending hasn't been great, but more often than we'd like, the goaltender is hung out to dry.

Ray Whitney scored a five-on-three power play, which was the only thing remotely positive in this game. Carolina had thirtysomething shots, but probably 25 of those came from above the faceoff circles with no traffic in front.

Carolina will have a chance to end this horrible skid with a home game against the Oilers on Friday night. Edmonton played and won in Atlanta on in Washington Thursday, so neither team will be rested.

Canes deal Sens first loss

On Thursday night, the Hurricanes visited Ottawa and became the first team to defeat the Senators this year. The scoreboard said 5-3, but it really wasn't that close at all. Carolina has got to be thrilled with how things went.

After a bunch of nothing early in the first, Erik Cole scored his first goal of the season at 17:23 to give the Canes a 1-0 lead. The Canes were on a power play and were crashing the net hard. Gerber made a great save on Eric Staal, but he completely lost sight of the rebound. After making the save on Staal, Gerber drifted off to his right, following Staal and Justin Williams. The puck, however, was way off to his left. Cole jumped on the rebound and fired it into a completely empty net. Staal and Hamilton had the helpers. Again, Carolina came through on the power play while using the aggressive five-forward system.

1:10 into the second, Matt Cullen gave the Canes an two goal cushion. Chad "Sharpie" LaRose led a charge from the left wing and made a run at the goal. Gerber stopped his shot, but the rebound went in the air and right out front. Matt Cullen was Johnny on the spot, batting it out of the air for the goal. After a brief review to look for a high stick, the goal was allowed to stand.

Dany Heatley got the home team on the board at 4:15 with a nice goal after a beautiful assist by Jason Spezza. Spez now has assists in every game. Wade Redden got the secondary assist on the even strength goal.

At 6:24, Sharpie's hard work led to another Carolina goal. He charged in from the right wing, went hard to the net, and fired a shot. Gerber easily made the save, but his rebound went right out front to the low slot. From there, Rod Brind'Amour shoved it in. Viva got the secondary assist.

The second period was truncated slightly due to a broken glass panel with less than a minute remaining. After the intermission, the period was finished, then they switched sides and started the third.

Erik Cole scored his second goal of the game at 6:42 of the third. Once again, it was Sharpie leading the way. He came down the right side and dropped a pass to the trailing Cole at the right faceoff dot. From there, Cole wristed it in to make it 4-1. Eric Staal had the secondary assist on the even strength goal.

The Sens were not ready to roll over and die, though. At 16:16, Mike Fisher scored, assisted by Antoine Vernette and Patrick Eaves.

Less than two minutes later, the home team made things really interesting. Joe Corvo fired a shot from the high slot through heavy traffic. It found its way in the net, and it was suddenly a one goal game. Spezza, who now has 10 assists on the year, and Heatley assisted.

With "Baby Food" Gerber pulled for an extra attacker, the Canes sealed the deal at 19:02. Eric Staal tucked the puck into the empty net, assisted by Cory Stillman.

After Tuesdays shellacking of the Leafs, it was good to see that the offensive outburst wasn't an anomaly. Seven goals on Tuesday and five on Thursday. That's good stuff. Like Tuesday, the wealth was really spread. Nine different players registered at least one point.

They continued with the aggressive style of crashing the net. Sure, it's a tired cliche, but good things happen when you crash the net. They also continued with the occasional employ of a five-forward power play. On the lone power play goal, the skaters were Cullen, Viva, Staal, Cole, and Hamilton. It's a risky maneuver, but the reward outweighs the risk.

The FSN South three stars were Staal (third), Cole (second) and LaRose (first). The "official" three stars were Mike Fisher (third), Cole (second) and LaRose (first). Mine were exactly like FSN. The RBH three stars:

THIRD STAR: Eric Staal, CAR --- 1 goal, 2 assists
SECOND STAR: Erik Cole, CAR --- 2 goals, including GWG
FIRST STAR: Chad LaRose, CAR --- 3 assists

Carolina will play in Montréal on Saturday. Then they'll return home for a five day break, and the roadtrip continues in Pittsburgh next Friday and Philly on Saturday.

Canes-Sens tonight

Carolina and Ottawa square off tonight at 7:30 at Scotiabanc Place. Carolina had the place to themselves yesterday, as the Sens were in Atlanta .

Ottawa is one of four remaining teams who have yet to lose. Hopefully, Carolina will do as they did in October of 2005, and put an end to the Sens perfection. Without a doubt, that 3-2 win was one of the most exciting games of that season. I remember it well, even without re-reading my post. It was the first game back after their annual two week October road trip. It was unseasonably cold that night and very windy.

This is game three of the six game swing. So far, the Canes have played their worst game of the season (Washington) and their best (Toronto). They will have to be something more like the latter because the Sens are no joke.

Since the Canes were shut out two games back, there are no point streaks entering the game, but ten Canes had at least one point on Tuesday and will be looking to do the same tonight.

Jason Spezza has yet to score a goal, but has eight assists so far this season, and has at least one point in every game. Of course my pointing out that he hasn't registered a goal means that he'll get three tonight, but it is what it is.

Eric Staal (4/1) and Viva (1/4) each have five points for the Canes to lead them into tonight.

Why are we in this handbasket, and why is it so hot?

Here's another indicator that the NHL is screwing up. I got this from James Mirtle's blog today.

Minnesota Wild defenseman Sean Hill was suspended for 20 games by the NHL for failing a drug test. We still don't know what "positive" result came back, but the League immediately hit him with 20 games. Of that, he served one game, and still owes 19. We all remember that. That's not the point.

The NHL decided to forbid him from participating in preseason games. Meanwhile, it has decided to allow the Islanders' Chris Simon to participate in the preseason even though he is still under suspension for his violent attack against Ryan Hollweg of the Rangers back in March.

As I pointed out on Tuesday, Simon's participation in a preseason tilt against the Rangers resulted in a huge brawl. I wondered on this page why he was allowed to play, and many people answered "because these games don't count". Of course I understand that, but I was (and still am) of the belief that a suspended player shouldn't be allowed to participate in any games (real or preseason) until he has served his suspension.

The problem here is that there's a double standard. The NHL has responded to this by saying "Terms of suspensions are case specific. Sean Hill's does not allow him to play" in the preseason.

In otherwords:

We spun the wheel of disciplinary fortune, and Sean Hill hit a whammy while Chris Simon landed on "get out of jail free"

(Please pardon my mixing of two game shows and one board game to make that example)

Here's where it could get even trickier. Steve Downie from the Flyers will have a hearing with NHL disciplinarian Colin "Clownshoes" Campbell on Friday for his violent check of the Senators' Dean McAmmond. If Downie is suspended, Colin Campbell will have a lot of explaining to do in how he doles out the number of games and the remainder of the preseason.
Since these games "don't count", couldn't one make a silly argument that his potential suspension should only be for other exhibition games? Obviously that's a farce, but it would fall suit with the mutual exclusivity of regular season and pre-season rationale that allows Simon to play in the preseason.

You've probably seen the hit by now, but please check out this clip of it because it has a gem at the end.

There is no audio in the first 25 seconds of that video, but the bit that really gets me is Sens coach Bryan Murray talking about a "lack of respect" among players. He essentially calls Downie a "dirty player".
Hey Bryan... You ever hear of a guy named Chris Neil? Check your team's roster.

I will be very curious to see how this all pans out.

Eastern Conference hot seats (part two)

This is part two of this series.
A few days ago, The Score presented its list of players who will be in "the hot seat" for their respective team. Not necessarily that their job is on the line, but the suggestion is that the success or failure of the team would be predicated upon the success or failure of a single player. Unfortunately, their list puts too much pressure on the goaltender to be the guy. I don't really buy that. Too often, goalies become the fall guy he's not getting any goal support. I like to look elsewhere.

The rest of the crew over at SESO have been kicking this around for a few days, everyone putting their own two cents in. I thought it would be fun to take it team-by-team and give my own unqualified opinion. I'm in no way qualified to comment on Western Conference teams, and in many cases, I have no business commenting on Eastern, but I'll take a shot at all 15 teams in the East. Here are the last seven.


Tampa Bay Lightning Again, The Score picked on the goalie, putting Marc Denis in the "hot seat". I just don't think it's fair. I'd rather put a position player with the weight on his shoulders. In this case, I think it should be Vincent "The Horseman" Lecavalier. Vinny was the #1 overall pick in the 1998 draft. Unlike the #8 pick (Mark Bell) and the #11 pick (Jeff Heerema) from that year's draft, he has avoided a jail sentence this summer. All joking aside, he had his "breakout" season last year, scoring 108 (52/56) points, which shattered his previous personal best by 30 points. It will be on him to repeat that kind of performance and lead his team to a fifth straight playoff appearance. Martin St. Louis also had an explosion last season and will have to do the same this year. Honestly, because they're division foes, I hope they don't help their team, but they sure are fun to watch.

Toronto Maple Leafs The Score once again took the wimpy way out and put the heat on newly acquired goaltender Vesa Toskala. This is utter crap. He'll be duking it out for the #2 spot with former perennial Brodeur backup Scott Clemmensen. In all honesty, he'll probably land with the Marlies or he'll be picked up off the waiver wire. Hot seat? I think not. My pick isn't as wimpy. I'll call out 24-year old Kyle Wellwood. I could have taken the easy way out and picked on the Captain, but Sundin has been probably the most consistent player in all of hockey. You know he's going to give you exactly a point a night. And he's the damn Captain. I say Wellwood because he has shown that he can produce huge numbers at every level, and it's time to do it at the NHL level. Last season, defensemen Tomas Kaberle and Bryan McCabe were #2 and #3 on the the Leafs in terms of points production with 58 and 57 respectively. The forwards have to step up, and I think Wellwood is gonna have to be the guy. It certainly won't be Bates Battaglia. They won't be a Cup contender either way, but if this guy can break out, they'll at least make the playoffs.

Florida Panthers. Again with the goaltender. The Score put Tomas Vokoun in there. I don't see why. He was run out of Nashville on a rail and brought in to Florida to replace Eddie "The Eagle" Belfour, who had become the Adam "Pacman" Jones of hockey with his off-ice antics. In 2006, it was certainly true that the Preds' success was predicated upon the health and performance of Vokoun. When he went down with his pelvic thrombophlebitis late in the '06 seson, the Preds took a nosedive and were quickly eliminated in the first round of those playoffs.
It's true that their goaltending depends upon him. The backup, Craig Anderson, is not a good goalie. I'll pick on Nathan Horton. He was taken 3rd in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft (just behind Eric Staal), and of that class, he's one of a few who hasn't had at least one explosive season. Don't misunderstand me. His 62 (31/31) points last year were good, but I think there's more in the tank.
If Olli Jokinen has a horrible season, this team is done, but that won't happen, so there's no point in discussing that. I think Horton can have more of a hand in making them better. They'll still miss the playoffs, but I think Horton will have his year, and it will benefit the Cats greatly.

Pittsburgh Penguins. The Score put old man Gary Roberts in the "hot seat". I won't do that. I can't quite pick between two sophomores, so I'll make them sit in each other's lap in the hot seat. Jordan Staal had a remarkable rookie season. Most folks figured he'd play in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but he exploded right out of the gate to earn his spot on the big club. His 42 (29/13) points were way better than the 31 (11/20) that his brother scored during his rookie campaign. His seven shorties were tops in the entire league. If he can do like his brother and have an explosive second year, the Pens will be very happy. Also, second year player Evgeni Malkin has a different challenge. His is to prove that his eye-popping 85 (33/52) points wasn't a fluke. He's a big, big dude, and he's fun to watch. If Malkin can maintain or increase his production, and Staal can increase his, the Pens will be a serious force to be reckoned with.

New York Rangers. The Score says Chris Drury is the guy. I think I agree. He was one of two ultra-expensive free agent acquisitions made by the Rags. He'll not only have to prove that he's worth the $7.1M he'll earn this season. He also has to fill the void left by Michael Nylander. Then again, Scott Gomez will be making $10M. He's never even had a 90 point season in the NHL and he's making stupid money. More money than Jagr. "The Golden Bitch" will probably not like this. Rags fans and Chris Drury himself should hope that there are no hostilities, or Drury will be shown the door. Maybe that is the "hot seat". The relationship between Jagr and Gomez. Yes. I'm sure of it. That's it.

Ottawa Senators. The Score says defenseman Wade Redden. At $6.5M, he's the Sens' highest paid player. I dunno. Daniel Alfredsson had a monstrous 103-point season in '06 , then had a bit of a letdown last season, but he still managed 87 (29/58) points. He was great in the playoffs. At one point in the regular season, though, he went through a drought, and his attitude came into question. I don't know all the details. He and Jason Spezza are both big pieces of the puzzle and they must put up 90 or more points. They must also stay healthy, which is a challenge for Spezza. If one of these guys slacks this year, the other will pick up. I can't decide on anybody. I'm tempted to go against my own rule and pick Ray Emery. He emerged as a star last season, and if he should falter or fall back to Earth (read: Cam Ward), that might make a big difference.

Atlanta Thrashers The Score picked Ilya Kovalchuk. He did drop off his point production by 22 points last season. Sure. Why not? If he drops off again, the Thrash will have no hope of qualifying for the playoffs.

Okay, so that's the Eastern Conference. I doubt that I'll bother with the Western Conference, but we'll see.

Ducks take commanding 3-1 lead

On Monday night, the Ducks defeated the Sens 3-2 to take a 3-1 Stanley Cup Finals lead. Game five will be Wednesday night afternoon in Anaheim. Like Carolina last year, the Ducks will have three chances to finish this thing, and potentially two of them will be at home.

I don't think it will go that far.

Ray Emery was not good tonight. He made one or two good saves, but he didn't look sharp. He didn't have to be in the first period, as the Ducks only mustered two shots on goal. The rest of the game, he looked shaky, even bad. Several times, he got help from the crossbar or the posts.

Anaheim played well despite having their best defenseman in the press box. Pronger will be back on Wednesday, and the home crowd will be fired up.

There is a good chance that Ottawa will be without the services of their captain on Wednesday. At the close of the second period, Daniel Alfredsson fired a shot directly at Scott Niedermayer, who was NOT between Alfie and the goal. It looked pretty deliberate, and the commentators seemed pretty disgusted by it.
The play went unpenalized, but it will be reviewed by the League, and I guess they'll issue a one game suspension.

This. Is. Over.

Even if the Sens can pull out a victory in Anaheim, AND force a game seven, I just don't think they're good enough. For the third straight season, the Cup will go to a team from a "non-traditional" market, a sunny and warm place.

Third round went swimmingly, on to the finals

After an embarrassing 0-4 performance in the second round of the playoffs, my predictions went 2-0 in the third round.

Cumulatively, I've gone 8-6. Not bad. Last year, picking the Canes to win, I went 9-6.

My pick for the Stanley Cup Champs is ..... Anaheim.

Make no mistake. I'm rooting for the Sens. I'm rooting for them in a big way.

Here's what my head has to say:

As I've said before, the Hockey gods are funny guys. They've got that long running joke with us that they want to continue. If the "joke" continues, it will make perfect sense for Ottawa to lose. They will become the 18th different team in a row to lose in the SCF. Anaheim has already lost, so they can't repeat or the joke ends.

In another way, the hockey gods might have another joke. A new joke. The way this new one works, is you win the Cup four years after you lose in the SCF.

Carolina lost in 2002, and won in 2006.
Anaheim lost in 2003, and has a very good shot to win in 2007.

If this turns out like this, 2008's champ will be Cal-Gary, who lost in 2004. Their opponent will be one of: Rangers, Islanders, Thrashers, Bolts, Penguins or Maple Leafs (any of whom would make it 19 straight different losers). My bet is that it will be Pittsburgh.

HOWEVER:

My heart says I should root for the Sens. And I will.

There are many reasons, but the primary one is that they need to win this for Elgin-Alexander.

Young fan dies hours after watching Sens reach Stanley Cup Finals

This might be the saddest thing I've read in a long time.

On Saturday night, three year old Sens fan Elgin-Alexander Fraser passed away just hours after watching his beloved Senators reach the Stanley Cup Finals. Read the Ottawa Citizen story here.Fraser suffered from neuroblastoma, which is a rare form of childhood cancer.

Mike Fisher of the Senators paid regular visits to the Fraser home. Elgin had many meetings with the other players, but he had a special relationship with Fisher. The two are pictured here at a Sens practice in April. The team invited Elgin to the closed practice, where he got to meet, hang out with and get photos with his heroes.

Now, he is their hero.

Neuroblastoma effects the nervous system, and young Elgin was diagnosed when he was just nine months old. He underwent aggressive treatment, putting the cancer into remission. However, the cancer came back in January. Unfortunately, they were unable to beat it this time.

Last spring, the Hurricanes embraced little six-year old Julia Rowe in a story kind of like this one. Rowe is the next door neighbor to coach Peter Laviolette, and suffers from leukemia. She beat it once, but it came back. Coach Laviolette spearheaded a campaign to raise over $60,000 for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, and the team used young Julia as a rallying point. After reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, the team (in conjunction with Julia's parents) presented Rod Brind'Amour with a special "Relentless" award for being the MVP. There was a bottle of wine associated with that, which had been autographed by young Julia. It had been traveling with the team the whole time. Buffalo coach Lindy Ruff, and the rest of the Sabres mistook it for champaign early in the series, and accused the Canes of hubris.

Again, she beat back the Leukemia, but the latest news is that it has appeared for a third time.

After learning of Elgin's death, Mike Fisher said

The impact he had on me was incredible. With the things he went through and how well he handled them. I was blessed to spend some time with him

I expect the Sens to rally around this story and use Elgin's memory as an inspiration. His funeral will be on Thursday.

Daniel Alfredsson wins game, guarantees Sens will lose Cup

On Saturday afternoon, the Senators eliminated the Sabres in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Sens will now wait for the Western Conference Final between the Wings and Ducks to conclude.

The city of Buffalo continues their Championship drought.

Sens captain Daniel Alfredsson scored the game winner 9:32 into the overtime period on a really nasty play. He came in the Sabres zone on a one-on-three situation, used Sabres defenseman Brian "Soupy" Campbell as a screen, and bistered one through Ryan Miller's five hole from the top of the left circle.

There was jubilation in the Canadian capital city.

For about 30 seconds.

The NHL folks quickly brought the Prince of Wales trophy out on the ice for presentation to Alfredsson. During the perfunctorily quick ceremony, Alfredsson committed the cardinal sin: He touched the Prince of Wales trophy.

Everyone knows you don't skate with, pick up, or even touch the Prince of Wales. You really don't even look at it. Ron Francis and the Carolina Hurricanes learned this the hard way in 2002. When they got their second chance in 2006, they made a point to not touch the POW. Of course, Detroit was by far the better team, but Carolina angered the hockey gods with the touching of the POW.

EDIT: -->In 2003, Asshole Scott Stevens of the New Jersey Devils skated with the Prince of Wales, and his team went on to win the Cup.

This Senators team looks unbeatable right now. Buffalo struggled with focus and effort in this series, but they played well today. Not well enough, though. I don't think anyone could have played well enough.

If the Red Wings advance out of the West, I will be rooting for Ottawa.
If the Ducks advance out of the West, I will be rooting for them.

Buffalo avoids sweep; Chris Pronger is made an example of (kind of).

On Wednesday night, the Senators had a chance to complete a sweep of hockey's best team, and they had that chance in front of their home crowd. Unlike the previous three games, Buffalo decided to show up, and they won the game 3-2.

At 8:06 of the second period, Chris Drury gave the Sabres a 3-0 lead. They had no way of knowing it at the time, but it turned out to be the game-winner.

I didn't see even one second of the game, and I didn't get to chat with any of my Buffalo friends, but I'm sure they're all happy. Just before game four, I saw one of my Buffalo peeps, and he had pretty much sent the white towel up the mast.

As fate would have it, the Sabres benefitted from a five-on-three situation, scoring their first power play goal of the series.

Will this give the Sabres life? Sure. They head back to Eerie Coutie with a chance to instill hope in their fans. Those fans, by the way, have scooped up every ticket to every game this season and of course during the playoffs. Something like 60 straight sellouts.

Do they have a chance to win the series? Probably not.

In the West, which I have had a very hard time caring about, Detroit dominated game three with a 5-0 shutout. Game four is tonight in Anaheim.
By now, we've all read about or seen the thing with Chris Pronger.
He and Rob Neidermeyer crushed Tomas Holmstrom into the boards, knocking him silly and opening a gash on his forehead. Neidermeyer was given the boot for boarding, and after reviewing the tape, Pronger was suspended one game for "a blow to the head".

As regular readers know, I support the institution of stiff penalties for blows to the head. I'm glad that the League decided to do something about it. I find it a bit odd, though, that they capriciously handed down this one game suspension. There is no provision in the rulebook, and no precedent in NHL play. Huzzah for taking a stand, but I have to say that it seems like they're changing the rules in the middle of the game.
Several times during the season, players threw very hard head-high checks, causing injury. Those players were often unpenalized, and when they were given supplementary discipline, it wasn't consistent.
Like I say, good for the League for deciding to do something about it. During the summer, I very much hope that they'll write some verbage in the rule book pertaining to blows to the head. At the very least, they should have some defined supplementary discipline. A yard stick, if you will. They should know that such behavior carries a two, three, five game mandatory suspension.
That brings me to my other gripe. If the League wants to be serious about punishing players for this type of hit, they need to be more firm in their punishment. A one game suspension during the playoffs is a big deal, but the League cannot allow that to be the precedent. It needs to be more severe.
As a guy who doesn't care about the Ducks, and a guy who actually has dislike for the Redwings, I can look at the tape with a slight bias against the Wings. However, that hit looks almost predatory in nature.

As you may remember, Canada's Shea Weber (Nashville) was suspended for three games during the IIHF World Championships for delivering a head-high check to Germany's Yannic Seidenberg. There is nothing set in stone (relating to supplementary discipline) there either, but they do have a stance against head-high hits.

Anyway, that Ducks-Wings series continues tonight in Anaheim. Detroit is up 2-1, and the Ducks will be without their best defenseman.

Senators take suffocating 3-0 lead

On Monday night, the Sabres forgot to show up to Scotiabank Place, and they find themselves in a very deep 3-0 series hole. The Senators won the game 1-0, but it wasn't that close. After the game, Brian Engblom from Versus quipped "Maybe winning this game 1-0 is the ultimate 'Screw you'"

The lone goal was on an odd carom, and it wasn't the result of a five-on-three. It didn't matter. The Sabres were lethargic at best.

On Wednesday, they will have to steal game four in order to have one more home game.

AQuietGirl from Hockey Will Tear us Apart hasn't posted yet. She's probably still wearing her formal attire. Her commentary of game two is a must-read.

Kevin from BFLOBLOG isn't impressed with his team.

Ottawa takes 2-0 lead, heads home

On Saturday night, the Senators stunned the Sabres by winning again in the HSBC Arena. Maybe "stunned" isn't the right word, but either way the Sens own a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. Buffalo is no longer assured anything. If the Sens play their cards right, they can wrap up the series with two wins at Scotiabank Place.

I say "stunned" isn't the right word because perhaps the Sabres weren't. They played pretty much the same way they've played all playoff season. It was good enough to beat the Islanders and it was good enough to get by the Rangers but so far it hasn't been enough to even win a home game against the Sens.

This one was a little different, though. The home team got off to a two goal lead in the first period, but it completely lost it after that. Ottawa scored three unanswered goals to take a 3-2 lead which held up until five seconds remained in regulation. The third of those Senators goals was the result of a questionable five-on-three. This would prove to be a major point of contention, along with a disallowed Sabres goal.

Throughout the game, and mostly in the third period, the Sabres looked to be skating through porridge. Too frequently, one guy would make a dazzling move to gain the zone, only to have no teammates and four Senators to deal with.

Just like that game against the Rangers, the Sabres got a miraculous closing-seconds goal to force overtime. Before it was Chris Drury. This time it was the other Captain. This time was also different in that Buffalo couldn't parlay that momentum into a win.

In the first overtime period, the Sabres had a great chance to win it. Joe Corvo was sent off for interference, but the power play was awful. During that sequence, the Senators had two quality shorthanded chances and the Sabres had zero chances of their own. This has been the recurring theme. In the second overtime period, Corvo turned out to be the hero by blasting a blueline shot past Ryan Miller, just off a faceoff in the Sabres zone.

In the post game presser, the questions for Lindy Ruff were pretty much about the power play and how they were going to make adjustments to get it going. Instead of addressing that, he pointed out the five-on-three, which led to a goal for the Senators.

For the record, although it's true that Ottawa has had two five-on-three situations in this series, Buffalo has had more overall power plays and has failed to convert. Ottawa is 4-10 in power play situations, while Buffalo is 0-12.

Jason Spezza had three assists and was named second star of the game. He now leads all scorers with 17 (6/11) post-season points.

Ducks and Wings are underway right now.

Sens lead 1-0, Wings/Ducks start tonight.

On Thursday night, the Senators took a 1-0 series lead over the Sabres with a 5-2 victory in Buffalo. They have, in effect, stolen the "home ice" advantage by winning game one on the road. If Buffalo should win game two (and I think they will), Ottawa will have three of the remaining five games in their building.

Due to a long-standing Thursday ritual, I didn't watch the game. This ritual has only been broken a few times. Namely, when the Hurricanes were in the playoffs last season and an occasional home game in the regular season this year.

From my conversations with my Sabres friends, I've gathered that the home team didn't play very well. Their special teams, which have been under criticism all playoff season, stunk. Apparently, their effort was lacking or completely absent in the closing stanza.

For a more qualified opinion on the matter, I highly recommend BFLOBLOG, as I always do. Mark has his detailed analysis here, and the always on-point Kevin has a very terse review here.

For Sens opinion, I suggest Hockey Will Tear Us Apart. As of the moment, "AQuietGirl" hasn't posted a game review, but she had some excellent series preview stuff.

Finally, here's the play of the game, Mike Fisher's shorthanded breakaway goal in the first period:



Wings and Ducks start tonight. I'll predict the Ducks in game one.

Also, the United States lost to Finland and was eliminated from IHWC play on Thursday. Meanwhile, Canada soldiers on.

Third round predictions

I have one foot out the door for work, so I have to make this quick. No shiny graphics, no elaborate analysis. I need to get my third round picks in, and if I get around to it, I'll detail them before Thursday's action begins.

After going a respectable 6-2 in the first round, I was a dreadful 0-4 in the second. I'm still at the break-even point, which isn't that bad.

Ottawa over Buffalo in seven games.
I think Buffalo's stagnant power play is going to become a problem. There's the potential for the bad blood between the teams to boil, but since it's the ECF, I think the players will cool it. Jason Spezza will be the star for the Sens, and Chris Drury will be Buffalo's best player.

The hockey gods' little joke has something to do with this pick. I really think, though, that the Sens will be too much for the very talented Sabres to handle.

Anaheim over Detroit in six. Teemu Selanne deserves this. Chris Pronger does not, but it's acceptable. My heart refuses to let my head say anything good about the Wings. The ducks are en fuego, anyway. They're too good.

Conference Finals set

On Monday night, Detroit finished off the Sharks, which finalizes the Conference Finals. In the West, Detroit will host Anaheim starting on Friday. In the East, Buffalo will host Ottawa starting on Thursday.

The hockey gods are funny guys, and because of their running joke, both the Sabres and the Senators were rooting for the Sharks to come back against the Wings. That didn't happen, and Ottawa is destined to be the next victim of this "joke".

To explain:

Since 1989, there have been 17 different losing teams in the Stanley Cup Final. No team has lost twice in that span. Of the four remaining teams, Ottawa is the only one not on that list. Detroit lost in the 1995 Finals against New Jersey. Anaheim lost in the 2003 Finals against New Jersey. Buffalo lost in the 1999 finals to Dallas. This incarnation of the Senators has never been to the Final. The original Senators won the Cup in 1927, and folded seven years later.

So, it looks like Ottawa will win the East and lose in the Final.

The complete list of those 17 different losers with winning team in parentheses:

1989 Montéal Canadiens (Calgary Flames)
1990 Boston Bruins (Edmonton Oilers)
1991 Minnesota North Stars (Pittsburgh Penguins)
1992 Chicago Blackhawks (Pittsburgh Penguins)
1993 Los Angeles Kings (Montréal Canadiens)
1994 Vancouver Canucks (New York Rangers)
1995 Detroit Red Wings (New Jersey Devils)
1996 Florida Panthers (Colorado Avalanche)
1997 Philadelphia Flyers (Detroit Red Wings)
1998 Washington Capitals (Detroit Red Wings)
1999 Buffalo Sabres (Dallas Stars)
2000 Dallas Stars* (New Jersey Devils)
2001 New Jersey Devils (Colorado Avalanche)
2002 Carolina Hurricanes (Detroit Red Wings)
2003 Anaheim Ducks (New Jersey Devils)
2004 Calgary Flames (Tampa Bay Lightning)
2005 -- No Cup
2006 Edmonton Oilers (Carolina Hurricanes)

* Although the Dallas Stars are technically the same franchise as the Minnesota North Stars, they are indeed different. In the late '70s the North Stars merged with the Cleveland Barons(nee California Golden Seals), and at some point in the early 90's the team tried to move to San Fransisco. This didn't work, the Gunds sold the NorthStars, and the San Jose Sharks were granted to the previous owners of the NorthStars. The team eventually moved to Dallas and is under different ownership. The North Stars have more of a "real" connection with the San Jose Sharks than they do with the Dallas Stars.

So anyway, the Sabres won't be making it to the Final this year. In order for the joke to continue, Ottawa has to go, and they have to lose.

Don't blame me. Blame the Hockey gods.