Eric Staal on cover of EA's NHL '08

This week, EA Sports announced that Carolina Hurricanes center Eric Staal will be on the cover of NHL 2008, which will be released in September. People quickly started talking about the "EA Curse". I see no reason to be alarmed. It doesn't work with hockey games. This applies mainly to the Madden football games. The cover star of that game almost always goes on to have a horrible season or suffer a terrible injury that season. Or go to jail.
Mike Chen once wrote something about the EA Hockey curse, but I'm not buying it. Neither is "Stormbringer". In her words:

My personal take on a good chunk of the above is that a lot of it is *really* a stretch. To me, a "curse" would be solidified by the bad things happening to the cover boys in the season that their respective EA game is supposed to represent, NOT a few seasons later.

A few years ago, on the other blog, I wrote this piece to debunk the Sports Illustrated Superbowl Jinx. You can read about that here and also here.

For now, I'll just go over the EA NHL games since 1997, which was the first year that they used a "cover boy"

1997 -- John Vanbiesbrouck
After helping the Panthers reach the Stanley Cup Final in 1996, goalie John Vanbiesbrouck had a slightly better season while he was featured on the game box.
His record went from 26-20-7 in '96 to 27-19-10 in '97. His GAA went from 2.68 to 2.29 and his save % went from .904 to .919. He had a few more decent seasons after.

1998 -- Peter Forsberg
Foppa's game was also slightly better while he was the cover boy. In 1997, he had 86 points (28/58) in 65 games. While he was on the game box, he had 91 points (25/66) in 72 games. The points per game production was down by a hair, but he was healthier, and being on the box wasn't anything like a "curse" that season.

1999 -- Eric Lindros
Big E's numbers went up pretty significantly after being on the box. In 1998, he had 71 (30/41) points in 63 games. After starring on the box, he had 93 (40/53) points in 71 games. It would be his last "great" season


2000 -- Chrissy Pronger
The former Whaler had his career best season while he was on the game box. He had 62 points on 14 goals and 48 assists. All of these were -- and still are -- career high marks. He also won the Bud Light Plus/Minus award for the second time that year, finishing the season with an amazing +52 rating. Also a career best.

2001 -- Owen Nolan
This guy had a bad season while on the box. He had a career best (playing over ability) 84 point (44/40) season the previous year, but was riddled with injuries and only mustered 49 (24/25) points in 57 games for the Sharks in 2001. Although his points were down, they were back on the "normal" level after the extraordinary season in 2000. Not so much a "curse" as a return to normalcy.

2002 -- SuperMario
Mario Lemieux played half a season in 2001, but still managed to put up awesome numbers with 76 (35/41) points in just 43 games. He beat cancer and came back with a great half-season, and it was an obvious thing to put him on the box. He suffered injuries in 2002, and was limited to 24 games. However, he tallied 31 points (6/25), which would be equal to having 106 points over 82 games. Not bad at all. He rebounded the following year some outstanding numbers, but his health caused him to be a shadow of the player he once was.

2003 -- Jarome Iginla
Iggy had a bit of a letdown after winning the Rocket Richard trophy in 2002. He went from 96 (52/44) points in '02 to a paltry 67 (35/32) points in '03. Like Owen Nolan, though, his big season was a flash in the pan, and the "letdown" was really just a return to normalcy. He did, however reach the 90 point plateau again this past season.

2004 (a) -- Dany Heatley
We don't need to discuss what happened there. Actually, he put up pretty decent numbers after returning from the massive injury, and while he was battling inner demons the whole time.
2004 (b) -- Joe Sakic
Sakic had a big season for the Avs, maintaining his career average of slightly better than a point a night. He totaled 87 (33/54) points in 81 games.

2005 -- Markus Naslund
There was no season, due to the lockout, so we can't really comment there.

2006 -- Vincent LaCavalier
Before the lockout, the Horseman had a "fair" 66 (32/34) point season, but led his team to the Stanley Cup Championship. In '06, he put up 75 (35/40) points, but his best was yet to come. In '07, he tallied 108 (52/56) points and won the Rocket Richard.

2007 -- Alexander Ovechkin

AO's career has been too short to talk about things like "career averages" and things of that nature, so we'll just say that there was a slight decline in points production during his sophomore season. He put up 106 (52/54) points in his rookie campaign, then "dropped" to "just" 92 (46/46) points last year. Not enough of a drop to be worthy of note, and not enough data to make any other judgement.




2008 -- Eric Staal
Staalsy blew up in his sophomore season, hitting the 100 point (45/55) mark, but fell considerably to just 70 (30/40)points last season. We're looking forward to a return to the 100 point club next year.

No reason to sweat it. There's no curse.

Ducks take commanding 3-1 lead

On Monday night, the Ducks defeated the Sens 3-2 to take a 3-1 Stanley Cup Finals lead. Game five will be Wednesday night afternoon in Anaheim. Like Carolina last year, the Ducks will have three chances to finish this thing, and potentially two of them will be at home.

I don't think it will go that far.

Ray Emery was not good tonight. He made one or two good saves, but he didn't look sharp. He didn't have to be in the first period, as the Ducks only mustered two shots on goal. The rest of the game, he looked shaky, even bad. Several times, he got help from the crossbar or the posts.

Anaheim played well despite having their best defenseman in the press box. Pronger will be back on Wednesday, and the home crowd will be fired up.

There is a good chance that Ottawa will be without the services of their captain on Wednesday. At the close of the second period, Daniel Alfredsson fired a shot directly at Scott Niedermayer, who was NOT between Alfie and the goal. It looked pretty deliberate, and the commentators seemed pretty disgusted by it.
The play went unpenalized, but it will be reviewed by the League, and I guess they'll issue a one game suspension.

This. Is. Over.

Even if the Sens can pull out a victory in Anaheim, AND force a game seven, I just don't think they're good enough. For the third straight season, the Cup will go to a team from a "non-traditional" market, a sunny and warm place.

Pronger suspended again

On Sunday, Chris Pronger was again suspended by the NHL for one game. The suspension was in response to anotherhead-high hit delivered by the hulking defenseman. Two minutes into period three of Saturday's game three of the Stanley Cup Finals, with the Ducks trailing 4-3. Dean McAmmond of the Sens carried the puck into the zone after a neutral zone turnover, fired a shot from the high slot, and was met with Pronger's left elbow.

In game three of the Western Conference finals, with the Ducks trailing badly in the second period, Pronger was part of a vicious incident also involving a head-high hit. For his role in that hit, Pronger was suspended for one game.

In the Pronger/Holmstrom incident, a penalty and ejection was issued to Rob Niedermayer. The Pronger suspension came after further review. Same story here. No penalty was given on the ice, although his actions should have warranted ejection.

I'm glad that the League has decided to suspend players for these head-high hits, but I will say again that it isn't enough. The one game suspension isn't enough. In this specific case, the one game suspension definitely isn't enough.

I would make a case for Pronger being a predator (small p). The Holmstrom thing looked like it was actually premeditated. This hit didn't look premeditated, but it certainly wasn't accidental or circumstantial. He deliberately raised his elbow, led with it, and followed through. This looked for all the world to be a deliberate attempt to injure, and it is absolutely disgusting.

Given his previous suspension for similar actions in this same playoff season, this makes him not only a predator, but a habitual predator. This should have absolutely been a multiple game suspension.

Dean McAmmond lay unconscious for a few minutes and had to be helped off the ice. He didn't return to the game, and wasn't really "there" in the locker room. He has a history of concussions, and this puts his ability to return to the series in question.

Coincidentally (or perhaps not), it was McAmmond who had scored the go-ahead goal on a fluky play at 18:34 of the second, which would turn out to be the game winner. From behind the net, he attempted a centering pass, which glanced off Pronger's skate and into the net.

Add that to the equation, and I just can't see how the elbow was a "mistake".

Ducks coach Randy Carlyle offered the following chickenshit explanation:

"We think it was totally unintentional. The league thought different. Chris Pronger is a competitive player. Some people will say he's using his size as an excuse.

The fact of the matter is his elbows are higher than most people's elbows. It's not like he raised his elbow to deliver a blow to the head."

This is almost identical to the explanation Pronger offered after the Holmsrom incident. And it's garbage. Chris Pronger is 32 years old. He has always been bigger than most players around him. He should know by now where his elbows line up to other players' bodies.

If we're to accept this bullcrap excuse, it would give smaller players like Scott Gomez and Ray Whitney license to go around punching everyone in the balls. "I can't help it if my fists are lower than everyone else's. I thought I was hitting him in the chest."

Boo on Chris Pronger. Boo on Randy Carlyle. Boo on Colin Campbell.

Buffalo avoids sweep; Chris Pronger is made an example of (kind of).

On Wednesday night, the Senators had a chance to complete a sweep of hockey's best team, and they had that chance in front of their home crowd. Unlike the previous three games, Buffalo decided to show up, and they won the game 3-2.

At 8:06 of the second period, Chris Drury gave the Sabres a 3-0 lead. They had no way of knowing it at the time, but it turned out to be the game-winner.

I didn't see even one second of the game, and I didn't get to chat with any of my Buffalo friends, but I'm sure they're all happy. Just before game four, I saw one of my Buffalo peeps, and he had pretty much sent the white towel up the mast.

As fate would have it, the Sabres benefitted from a five-on-three situation, scoring their first power play goal of the series.

Will this give the Sabres life? Sure. They head back to Eerie Coutie with a chance to instill hope in their fans. Those fans, by the way, have scooped up every ticket to every game this season and of course during the playoffs. Something like 60 straight sellouts.

Do they have a chance to win the series? Probably not.

In the West, which I have had a very hard time caring about, Detroit dominated game three with a 5-0 shutout. Game four is tonight in Anaheim.
By now, we've all read about or seen the thing with Chris Pronger.
He and Rob Neidermeyer crushed Tomas Holmstrom into the boards, knocking him silly and opening a gash on his forehead. Neidermeyer was given the boot for boarding, and after reviewing the tape, Pronger was suspended one game for "a blow to the head".

As regular readers know, I support the institution of stiff penalties for blows to the head. I'm glad that the League decided to do something about it. I find it a bit odd, though, that they capriciously handed down this one game suspension. There is no provision in the rulebook, and no precedent in NHL play. Huzzah for taking a stand, but I have to say that it seems like they're changing the rules in the middle of the game.
Several times during the season, players threw very hard head-high checks, causing injury. Those players were often unpenalized, and when they were given supplementary discipline, it wasn't consistent.
Like I say, good for the League for deciding to do something about it. During the summer, I very much hope that they'll write some verbage in the rule book pertaining to blows to the head. At the very least, they should have some defined supplementary discipline. A yard stick, if you will. They should know that such behavior carries a two, three, five game mandatory suspension.
That brings me to my other gripe. If the League wants to be serious about punishing players for this type of hit, they need to be more firm in their punishment. A one game suspension during the playoffs is a big deal, but the League cannot allow that to be the precedent. It needs to be more severe.
As a guy who doesn't care about the Ducks, and a guy who actually has dislike for the Redwings, I can look at the tape with a slight bias against the Wings. However, that hit looks almost predatory in nature.

As you may remember, Canada's Shea Weber (Nashville) was suspended for three games during the IIHF World Championships for delivering a head-high check to Germany's Yannic Seidenberg. There is nothing set in stone (relating to supplementary discipline) there either, but they do have a stance against head-high hits.

Anyway, that Ducks-Wings series continues tonight in Anaheim. Detroit is up 2-1, and the Ducks will be without their best defenseman.