An open letter to Flames fans

Dear Flames fans,
Don't be alarmed. Put away the razor blades. Get off that ledge. Everything is gonna be okay. Dion Phaneuf isn't doomed for failure. This isn't the NFL. Everything is gonna be okay.

Love,
RBH


To explain: Dion Phaneuf has been selected to be the cover star for EA Sports' NHL '09 video game. If this were the NFL, there would be cause for alarm. No Madden cover star has escaped without going on the IR or to jail. This, however, isn't the NFL.

Last summer, when it was announced that Eric Staal was going to be the cover star for NHL '08, I did some exhaustive research, and I concluded that there is no "curse". In fact, starring on the cover of the EA hockey game has generally been a good thing.

The first EA NHL game that used a "cover boy" was NHL '97. Here's how things worked out:

1997 -- John Vanbiesbrouck. The goalie for the Panthers saw his numbers improve slightly over the previous Cup-run season. Cover boy done good!

1998 -- Peter Forsberg. Foppa's productivity was slightly up during the 1998 season. He went from 86 (28/58) to 91 (25/66) points, and was healthier than he'd been in years. Cover boy done good!

1999 -- Eric Lindros. "Big E" went from 71 (30/41) to 93 (40/53) points. Cover boy done real good. The only thing is that it was his last really good season while he was on the box.

2000 -- Chrissy Pronger. Prongs had the best season of his career that season, so EA was good to him. Cover boy done real good.

2001 -- Owen Nolan. This was the best example of EA being bad to its cover boy. After a career best season (by far) in 2000, Nolan came down to earth. He went from 84 (44/40) to a more characteristic 49 (24/25) points. CURSED!!!

2002 -- SuperMario. Lemieux was plagued with injuries in 2002 and only played in 24 games, but he still put up SuperMario-like numbers, tallying 31 (6/25) games in a quarter of a season. He was never fully healthy again.
No ruling on this one.

2003 -- Jarome Iginla Iggy won the Richard trophy in 2002, but had a letdown of a season in 2003. He went from 96 (52/44) to a less exciting 67 (35/32) points. He was in the 70's the next season, then the '60s in '06, then in the '90s in '07 and '08. The box was unkind to him, putting him on a three-year skid. BADLY CURSED!!!

2004 (a) -- Dany Heatley and 2004 (b) -- Joe Sakic. The game had already hit the shelves when Heatley had the car crash that killed Dan Snyder. After returning from his own massive injuries, he played well, but it's fair to say that he was CURSED TIMES INFINITY!!!!
The Heatley box was pulled, and the replacement was Sakic. He went from 58 (26/32) in an injury-shortened season to 87 (33/54) points, which was very close to his career average of 1.2 points a game. Auxiliary cover boy done good!

2005 -- Markus Naslund. NHL players were locked out. Coming out of the lockout, he was pretty much on par with his career numbers, but since then, he's had a sharp decline in production. Since there was the lockout, there's no judgement on this one.

2006 -- Vincent LeCavalier. He had a marginally better season while on the box than the season before. He won the Richard trophy the following season and kept that pace in '08. Cover boy done real good.

2007 -- Alexander Ovechkin. Ovie's '07 numbers were just barely less than his '06 numbers, but not enough (from 106 to 92) to be concerned. He bounced back the following year with 112 (65/47) and the Richard trophy. Cover boy done good!

2008 -- Eric Staal. After having a "letdown" season in 2007, being on the box did him some good. He went from 70 (30/40) to 82 (38/44) and his third straight season with 30+ goals. Cover boy done good!

For the 2009 game, Phaneuf becomes the second Flames player and only the second defenseman in the series. He'd be hard-pressed to do much better than the 60 (17/43) that he put up from the back end last season.

The point is, there is no curse. If anything, it's been a good thing (for the most part) to have been the coverboy for the EA NHL series. I think Heatley's case stands out as an extraordinary counterexample.

Eric Staal on cover of EA's NHL '08

This week, EA Sports announced that Carolina Hurricanes center Eric Staal will be on the cover of NHL 2008, which will be released in September. People quickly started talking about the "EA Curse". I see no reason to be alarmed. It doesn't work with hockey games. This applies mainly to the Madden football games. The cover star of that game almost always goes on to have a horrible season or suffer a terrible injury that season. Or go to jail.
Mike Chen once wrote something about the EA Hockey curse, but I'm not buying it. Neither is "Stormbringer". In her words:

My personal take on a good chunk of the above is that a lot of it is *really* a stretch. To me, a "curse" would be solidified by the bad things happening to the cover boys in the season that their respective EA game is supposed to represent, NOT a few seasons later.

A few years ago, on the other blog, I wrote this piece to debunk the Sports Illustrated Superbowl Jinx. You can read about that here and also here.

For now, I'll just go over the EA NHL games since 1997, which was the first year that they used a "cover boy"

1997 -- John Vanbiesbrouck
After helping the Panthers reach the Stanley Cup Final in 1996, goalie John Vanbiesbrouck had a slightly better season while he was featured on the game box.
His record went from 26-20-7 in '96 to 27-19-10 in '97. His GAA went from 2.68 to 2.29 and his save % went from .904 to .919. He had a few more decent seasons after.

1998 -- Peter Forsberg
Foppa's game was also slightly better while he was the cover boy. In 1997, he had 86 points (28/58) in 65 games. While he was on the game box, he had 91 points (25/66) in 72 games. The points per game production was down by a hair, but he was healthier, and being on the box wasn't anything like a "curse" that season.

1999 -- Eric Lindros
Big E's numbers went up pretty significantly after being on the box. In 1998, he had 71 (30/41) points in 63 games. After starring on the box, he had 93 (40/53) points in 71 games. It would be his last "great" season


2000 -- Chrissy Pronger
The former Whaler had his career best season while he was on the game box. He had 62 points on 14 goals and 48 assists. All of these were -- and still are -- career high marks. He also won the Bud Light Plus/Minus award for the second time that year, finishing the season with an amazing +52 rating. Also a career best.

2001 -- Owen Nolan
This guy had a bad season while on the box. He had a career best (playing over ability) 84 point (44/40) season the previous year, but was riddled with injuries and only mustered 49 (24/25) points in 57 games for the Sharks in 2001. Although his points were down, they were back on the "normal" level after the extraordinary season in 2000. Not so much a "curse" as a return to normalcy.

2002 -- SuperMario
Mario Lemieux played half a season in 2001, but still managed to put up awesome numbers with 76 (35/41) points in just 43 games. He beat cancer and came back with a great half-season, and it was an obvious thing to put him on the box. He suffered injuries in 2002, and was limited to 24 games. However, he tallied 31 points (6/25), which would be equal to having 106 points over 82 games. Not bad at all. He rebounded the following year some outstanding numbers, but his health caused him to be a shadow of the player he once was.

2003 -- Jarome Iginla
Iggy had a bit of a letdown after winning the Rocket Richard trophy in 2002. He went from 96 (52/44) points in '02 to a paltry 67 (35/32) points in '03. Like Owen Nolan, though, his big season was a flash in the pan, and the "letdown" was really just a return to normalcy. He did, however reach the 90 point plateau again this past season.

2004 (a) -- Dany Heatley
We don't need to discuss what happened there. Actually, he put up pretty decent numbers after returning from the massive injury, and while he was battling inner demons the whole time.
2004 (b) -- Joe Sakic
Sakic had a big season for the Avs, maintaining his career average of slightly better than a point a night. He totaled 87 (33/54) points in 81 games.

2005 -- Markus Naslund
There was no season, due to the lockout, so we can't really comment there.

2006 -- Vincent LaCavalier
Before the lockout, the Horseman had a "fair" 66 (32/34) point season, but led his team to the Stanley Cup Championship. In '06, he put up 75 (35/40) points, but his best was yet to come. In '07, he tallied 108 (52/56) points and won the Rocket Richard.

2007 -- Alexander Ovechkin

AO's career has been too short to talk about things like "career averages" and things of that nature, so we'll just say that there was a slight decline in points production during his sophomore season. He put up 106 (52/54) points in his rookie campaign, then "dropped" to "just" 92 (46/46) points last year. Not enough of a drop to be worthy of note, and not enough data to make any other judgement.




2008 -- Eric Staal
Staalsy blew up in his sophomore season, hitting the 100 point (45/55) mark, but fell considerably to just 70 (30/40)points last season. We're looking forward to a return to the 100 point club next year.

No reason to sweat it. There's no curse.