More about the Hamilton Predators.

There has been a lot of noise made on this blog and others concerning the recent purchase of the Nashville Predators by Research In Motion CEO Jim Balsillie. There was also a bit of noise made (mostly by Mirtle) about Balsillie's recent land acquisition near Hamilton Ontario.

At first, I quickly drank the kool-aid on that one. After some careful consideration, though, that land acquisition seems way too small to have anything to do with the construction of an arena. Follow me for a second.

One acre is equal to 43,560 square feet. 25.7 acres is a total of 1,119,492 square feet. Looking around the league at the size of the arenas, most of them are roughly the same size. Using the Bell Centre in Montréal as an example, it is 351 feet by 479 feet, or 168,129 square feet. This refers to just the arena itself. Many other arenas have outbuildings or annexes, but this one is just the single building.

If you built a building like that on the Balsillie plot of land, you're left with 951,363 square feet. That sounds like a lot, but it isn't. At least not if you want to have any parking. According to some research that I've done, you need approximately 325 square feet for every parking space. This accounts for the parking space itself, plus the driving lanes between the rows, and other space necessary to make the parking lot functional. If you slammed the parking lot smack up against the building, that kind of land allows for 2,927 parking spaces. That doesn't allow for any roads on the premises or any landscaping, or any bus parking lots, or anything else. 2,927 parking spaces is not nearly enough. Especially if you're talking about an area that isn't exactly urban.

Parking garages tend to be more trouble than they're worth, and moreso as their scale increases. A garage/garages capable of handling 8,000 cars would be enormous, and would create a world of headache for fans entering and exiting the structure.

None of this talk has even gotten into the other infrastructural things arenas need like landscaping and bus lots and roads.

Could the parcel of land host an arena and an enormous parking deck? Theoretically, yes. Logistically and realistically, no. That land is for something else.

HOWEVER....

Earlier this week, in Gary Bettman's state of the League address, he claimed that Jim Balsillie had no intentions of moving the Predators. We all know this to be false, but reporters somehow spun Bettman's words into the misleading "The Predators aren't going anywhere". Referring to the "cure" clause in the Predators' lease with Nashville, what he actually said was

"If the attendance mark is satisfied, even if it's not, or if the city cures what would then be the default, this team is not going anywhere"

Even still, it's apparent that Balsillie has other plans. On Thursday, it was announced the the city of Hamilton has given Balsillie a thumbs-up to take over the Hamilton Place and Convention Centre (which includes the 17,500 seat Copps Coliseum) if he brings an NHL team there. Hamilton mayor Fred Eisenberger:

He has assured me that he wants to secure a team and he is interested in bringing it to Hamilton.

Quite different from Gary Bettman's quote when asked if Balsillie wanted to move the team:

"He told me that he did not"

Forget about the land acquisition. This is where the Preds would play.

Move the Preds to the Northeast division of the Eastern Conference.

To make up for the Conference imbalance, move the Thrashers to the Central division of the Western Conference. They're further west than Detroit and Columbus anyway.

To make up for the division imbalance, two moves have to be made. Move Boston out of the Northeast and into the Atlantic. Secondly, move Philadelphia out of the Atlantic and into the "Southeast" division. It'll break up some of the traditional division rivals, but there might not be another way to achieve balance. Rename the division. Better yet, rename ALL of the divisions. Ditch the geographic names and go back to the old school.

Preds sold

As of right now, this is unofficial, but by mid-day Thursday, it will be announced that the Nashville Predators have been sold to Blackberry mogul Jim Balsillie. You probably recall that Balsillie had a deal in place to purchase the Penguins, but reneged when he discovered that the team wouldn't leave Pittsburgh. He's found a "plan B".

Despite having one of the best teams in the NHL for two years running, the Preds have drawn really poorly at home. Their average attendance this season was somewhere close to 13,000, but close to 1000 of those were promotional and other "free" tickets. Their paid attendance was said to be nearer to 12,000. There is some discrepancy about the attendance numbers: some figures show their average take to be over 15,000. No matter whose numbers you use, there is little debate that the Preds just aren't a hot ticket in Nashville.

Other teams with poor attendance figures (including Carolina) have long leases with their city, or have too much history to move. The Nashville Predators, however, have an "out" clause in their lease with the city. If the team isn't selling an average of 14,000 paid tickets per game, they can either force the city to make up the difference, or they can leave. Next season will be their tenth, and it's likely that Balsillie will use it as the "cure" season.

The smart money is that Jim Balsillie will take the mustard-clad team out of Nashvegas and send it to Winnipeg, or Quebec City, or Moose Jaw, or Sault Ste Marie, or anywhere in Canada.

Will the fans in Nashvegas respond to a "Save the Preds" campaign? Doubtful. Will they buy enough tickets to "cure" the attendance woes? Possibly, but not in a long-term kind of way. Will the city cough up the money to make up the difference? Maybe.

I still say that the start of the 08-09 season will see a new Canadian team. Hopefully, the relocation will inspire Balsillie to change the name and the colors, too. I'm sure they'll have a new sleek color scheme involving silver and black. There'll be a full QWERTY keyboard embedded somewhere on the new team's sweater.

Depending on where the new team calls home, there might be a call for radical realignment.